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銆€銆€We have to realise how old, how very old, we are. Nations are classified as "aged" when they have 7 per cent or more of their people aged 65 or above, and by about 1970 every one of the advanced countries had become like this. Of the really ancient societies, with over 13 per cent above 65, all are in Northwestern Europe. At the beginning of the l980's East Germany had 15.6 per cent, Austria, Sweden, West Germany and France had 13.4 per cent or above, and England and Wales 13.3 per cent. Scotland had 12.3 per cent. Northern Ireland 10.8 per cent and the United States 9.9 per cent. We know that we are getting even older. and that the nearer a society approximates to zero population growth, the. older its population is likely to be -- at least, for any future that concerns us now.

銆€銆€鎴戝€戝繀闋堣獚(r猫n)璀�(sh铆)鍒版垜鍊戞槸澶氫箞鑰�銆備竴鍊�(g猫)鍦�(gu贸)瀹�65姝叉垨65姝蹭互涓婄殑鑰佷汉閬�(d谩)鍒版垨鑰呰秴閬�(gu貌)瑭插湅(gu贸)绺�?c猫)涓濊瘶?%锛岄€欏€�(g猫)鍦�(gu贸)瀹跺氨琚妰鐐衡€滆€侀健鍖栧湅(gu贸)瀹垛€�銆傚埌1970骞村乏鍙�锛屼笘鐣屼笂鎵€鏈夌殑鐧�(f膩)閬�(d谩)鍦�(gu贸)瀹堕兘鏄€侀健鍖栧湅(gu贸)瀹躲€傛墍鏈夌湡姝ｆ鍙叉偁涔呯殑鍦�(gu贸)瀹朵腑锛�65姝蹭互涓婅€佷汉鍗犲叏鍦�(gu贸)浜哄彛13%浠ヤ笂鐨勫湅(gu贸)瀹跺叏浣嶄簬瑗垮寳姝愩€傛湰涓栫磤(j矛)80骞翠唬鍒�锛屾澅寰锋湁15.6%锛屽ェ鍦板埄銆佺憺鍏�銆佽タ寰峰拰娉曞湅(gu贸)鍗�13.4%鎴栨洿楂�銆傝嫳鏍艰槶鍜屽▉鐖惧＋鍗�13.3%銆傝槆鏍艰槶鍗�12.3%銆傚寳鎰�(脿i)鐖捐槶鍗�10.8%锛岀編鍦�(gu贸)鍗�9.9%銆傛垜鍊戠煡閬撴垜鍊�?c猫)绲�?l谩i)瓒婅€�锛屾垜鍊戜篃鐭ラ亾涓€鍊�(g猫)绀炬渻(hu矛)鐨勪汉鍙ｆ剤鎺ヨ繎闆跺闀�(zh菐ng)锛屽叾鑰侀健鍖栨剤鍔犲毚(y谩n)閲�锛岃嚦灏戝皪(du矛)浜庢垜鍊戠従(xi脿n)鍦ㄩ棞(gu膩n)绯诲瘑鍒囩殑鏈締(l谩i)渚�(l谩i)瑾�(shu艒)鏄€欐ǎ鐨�銆�

銆€銆€To these now familiar facts a number of further facts may be added, some of them only recently recognised. There is the apparent paradox that the effective cause of the high proportion of the old is births rather than deaths. There is the economic principle that the dependency ratio ?the degree to which those who cannot earn depend for a living on those who can ?is more advantageous in older societies like ours than in the younger societies of the developing world, because lots of dependent babies are more of a liability than numbers of the inactive aged. There is the appreciation of the salient historical truth that the aging of advanced societies has been a sudden change.

銆€銆€鎴戝€戝凡缍�(j墨ng)鐭ラ亾閫欎簺浜嬪(sh铆)锛屼絾閭勬湁涓€浜涗笉鐭ラ亾锛屽叾涓竴浜涙槸杩戜締(l谩i)鎵嶇煡閬撶殑銆傛湁閫欐ǎ涓€鍊�(g猫)鏄庨’鐨勪技鏄€岄潪鐨勮榛�(di菐n)锛氶€犳垚鑰佸勾浜烘瘮鐜囬珮鐨勬湁鏁堝師鍥犳槸鍑虹敓浜烘暩(sh霉)鑰屼笉鏄浜′汉鏁�(sh霉)銆傛湁閫欐ǎ涓€姊濈稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)鍘熷墖锛氭挮椁�(y菐ng)鐜団€曗€曚笉鑳芥帣閷㈢敓娲荤殑浜轰緷闈犺兘鎺欓將椁�(y菐ng)瀹剁殑浜虹殑绋嬪害鈥曗€曞湪鎴戝€戦€欐ǎ鐨勬洿鑰侀健鍖栫殑绀炬渻(hu矛)閲屾瘮鍦ㄧ櫦(f膩)灞曚腑涓栫晫鐨勮純骞磋紩绀炬渻(hu矛)閲屾洿鏈夊埄涓€浜�銆傚洜?y脿n)姒囩絽搴风撼琛岄拑鐙傿(y菐ng)鐨勫瀛愯垏涓€瀹氭暩(sh霉)閲忕殑涓嶈兘宸ヤ綔鐨勮€佸勾浜虹浉姣�锛屾洿鏄€�(g猫)璨�(f霉)鎿�(d膩n)銆傛湁灏�(du矛)閫欐ǎ涓€鍊�(g猫)鏄庨’鐨勬鍙茬湡瀵�(sh铆)鐨勬纰鸿⿻(p铆ng)鍍�(ji脿)锛氬厛閫�(j矛n)绀炬渻(hu矛)鐨勮€侀健鍖栭兘鏄竴绋獊璁�銆�

銆€銆€If "revolution鈥� is a rapid resettlement of the social structure, and if the age composition of the society counts as a very important aspect of that social structure, then there has been a social revolution in European and particularly Western European society within the lifetime of everyone over 50. Taken together, these things have implications which are only beginning to be acknowledged. These facts and circumstances were well to the fore earlier this year at a world gathering about aging as a challenge to science and to policy, held at Vichy in France.

    濡傛灉鈥滈潻鍛解€濇槸灏�(du矛)绀炬渻(hu矛)绲�(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)鐨勮繀閫熼噸寤�锛屽鏋滅ぞ鏈�(hu矛)鐨勫勾榻℃(g貌u)鎴愯鐪嬩綔绀炬渻(hu矛)绲�(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)鐨勪竴鍊�(g猫)闈炲父閲嶈鐨勬柟闈�锛岄偅涔堝湪姝愭床绀炬渻(hu矛)锛岀壒鍒ユ槸鍦ㄨタ姝愮ぞ鏈�(hu矛)锛屾瘡涓€鍊�(g猫)骞撮亷(gu貌)50鐨勪汉鐨勪竴鐢熼兘缍�(j墨ng)姝烽亷(gu貌)涓€娆＄ぞ鏈�(hu矛)闈╁懡?锛熷仧鑶�?l谩i)瑾�(shu艒)锛岄€欎簺浜嬫儏鎵€鍖呭惈鐨勬剰缇╂槸浜哄€戝墰鍓涢枊濮嬭獚(r猫n)璀�(sh铆)鐨勩€傞€欎簺浜嬪(sh铆)鍜屾儏娉佹棭浜涙檪(sh铆)鍊欏湪娉曞湅(gu贸)缍笇鑸夎鐨勪竴鍊�(g猫)涓栫晫澶ф渻(hu矛)涓婅瑕栫偤灏�(du矛)绉戝(xu茅)鍜屾斂绛栫殑鎸戞埌(zh脿n)鑰岀疆浜庨’钁楃殑鍦颁綅銆�

    There is often resistance to the idea that it is because the birthrate fell earlier in Western and Northwestern Europe than elsewhere, rather than because of any change in the death rate, that we have grown so old. But this is what elementary demography makes clear. Long life is alt-ring our society, of course, but in experiential terms. We have among us a very much greater experience of continued living than any society that has ever preceded us anywhere, and this will continue. But too much of that lengthened experience, even in the wealthy West, will be experience of poverty and neglect, unless we do something about it.

銆€銆€鎴戝€戠殑浜哄彛涔嬫墍浠ヨ€侀健鍖栨槸鍥�?y脿n)妲查硥W鍜岃タ鍖楁瓙鐨勪汉鍙ｅ嚭鐢熺巼姣斿垾鐨勫湴鏂逛笅闄嶅緱鏃�锛岃€屼笉鏄敱浜庝汉鍙ｆ浜＄巼鏂归潰鐨勪换浣曡畩鍖�锛屽父鏈変汉灏�(du矛)姝よ榛�(di菐n)鎻愬嚭鐣拌銆備絾閫欐鏄熀绀�(ch菙)浜哄彛瀛�(xu茅)鎵€鐮旂┒鐨勫晱(w猫n)椤�銆傜暥(d膩ng)鐒�锛岄暦(zh菐ng)澹芥鏀硅畩钁楁垜鍊戠殑绀炬渻(hu矛)锛屼絾閫欐槸鏍规摎(j霉)缍�(j墨ng)椹�(y脿n)鑰屼締(l谩i)鐨勮(shu艒)娉曘€傛垜鍊戠従(xi脿n)鍦ㄦ墍缍�(j墨ng)姝风殑澹藉懡寤堕暦(zh菐ng)鐨勭稉(j墨ng)椹�(y脿n)锛屾瘮鍦ㄦ垜鍊戜箣鍓嶇殑浠讳綍绀炬渻(hu矛)閮藉寰楀锛岃€屼笖閫欑ó鎯呮硜鏈�(hu矛)绻肩簩(x霉)銆備絾鏄鏋滃＝鍛藉欢绾�(x霉)閬�(gu貌)闀�(zh菐ng)锛屽嵆渚挎槸鍦ㄥ瘜瑁曠殑瑗挎柟锛屼篃瑕佽畩寰楄钵鍥颁笉鍫�銆佽浜哄拷瑕栵紝闄ら潪鎴戝€戣憲鎵嬫敼璁婂畠銆�

銆€銆€If you are now in your thirties, you ought to be aware that you can expect to live nearly one third of the rest of your life after the age of 60. The older you are now, of course, the greater this proportion will be, and greater still if you are a woman. Expectation of life is a slippery figure, very easy to get wrong at the highest ages. At Vichy the demographers were telling each other that their estimates of how many old there would be and how long they will live in countries like England and Wales are due for revision upwards.

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