2013骞磋嚜鑰冭嫳瑾�(浜�)瑾叉枃璀枃:姝愭床鍦嬪鐨勮€侀健鍖�

鏇存柊鏅傞枔锛�2013-09-24 10:01:28 渚嗘簮锛殀0

鐎忚

鏀惰棌

鑷鑰冭│鍫卞悕銆佽€冭│銆佹煡鍒嗘檪闁� 鍏嶈不鐭俊鎻愰啋

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鐛插彇椹楄瓑绔嬪嵆闋愮磩

璜�?zh铆)椤氭啛D鐗囬璀夌⒓鍚庣嵅鍙栫煭淇￠璀夌⒓

鐪嬩笉娓呮锛屾彌寮靛湒鐗�

鍏嶈不鐛插彇鐭俊椹楄瓑纰�

銆€銆€姝愭床鍦嬪鐨勮€侀健鍖�

銆€銆€We have to realise how old, how very old, we are. Nations are classified as "aged" when they have 7 per cent or more of their people aged 65 or above, and by about 1970 every one of the advanced countries had become like this. Of the really ancient societies, with over 13 per cent above 65, all are in Northwestern Europe. At the beginning of the l980's East Germany had 15.6 per cent, Austria, Sweden, West Germany and France had 13.4 per cent or above, and England and Wales 13.3 per cent. Scotland had 12.3 per cent. Northern Ireland 10.8 per cent and the United States 9.9 per cent. We know that we are getting even older. and that the nearer a society approximates to zero population growth, the. older its population is likely to be -- at least, for any future that concerns us now.

銆€銆€鎴戝€戝繀闋堣獚璀樺埌鎴戝€戞槸澶氫箞鑰�銆備竴鍊嬪湅瀹�65姝叉垨65姝蹭互涓婄殑鑰佷汉閬斿埌鎴栬€呰秴閬庤┎鍦嬬附?c猫)涓濊瘶?%锛岄€欏€嬪湅瀹跺氨琚妰鐐衡€滆€侀健鍖栧湅瀹垛€�銆傚埌1970骞村乏鍙�锛屼笘鐣屼笂鎵€鏈夌殑鐧�(f膩)閬斿湅瀹堕兘鏄€侀健鍖栧湅瀹�銆傛墍鏈夌湡姝ｆ鍙叉偁涔呯殑鍦嬪涓�锛�65姝蹭互涓婅€佷汉鍗犲叏鍦嬩汉鍙�13%浠ヤ笂鐨勫湅瀹跺叏浣嶄簬瑗垮寳姝�銆傛湰涓栫磤80骞翠唬鍒�锛屾澅寰锋湁15.6%锛屽ェ鍦板埄銆佺憺鍏�銆佽タ寰峰拰娉曞湅鍗�13.4%鎴栨洿楂�銆傝嫳鏍艰槶鍜屽▉鐖惧＋鍗�13.3%銆傝槆鏍艰槶鍗�12.3%銆傚寳鎰涚埦铇崰10.8%锛岀編鍦嬪崰9.9%銆傛垜鍊戠煡閬撴垜鍊戣秺渚嗚秺鑰侊紝鎴戝€戜篃鐭ラ亾涓€鍊嬬ぞ鏈冪殑浜哄彛鎰堟帴杩戦浂澧為暦锛屽叾鑰侀健鍖栨剤鍔犲毚閲�锛岃嚦灏戝皪浜庢垜鍊戠従(xi脿n)鍦ㄩ棞绯诲瘑鍒囩殑鏈締渚嗚鏄€欐ǎ鐨勩€�

銆€銆€To these now familiar facts a number of further facts may be added, some of them only recently recognised. There is the apparent paradox that the effective cause of the high proportion of the old is births rather than deaths. There is the economic principle that the dependency ratio ?the degree to which those who cannot earn depend for a living on those who can ?is more advantageous in older societies like ours than in the younger societies of the developing world, because lots of dependent babies are more of a liability than numbers of the inactive aged. There is the appreciation of the salient historical truth that the aging of advanced societies has been a sudden change.

銆€銆€鎴戝€戝凡缍�(j墨ng)鐭ラ亾閫欎簺浜嬪锛屼絾閭勬湁涓€浜涗笉鐭ラ亾锛屽叾涓竴浜涙槸杩戜締鎵嶇煡閬撶殑銆傛湁閫欐ǎ涓€鍊嬫槑椤殑浼兼槸鑰岄潪鐨勮榛烇細閫犳垚鑰佸勾浜烘瘮鐜囬珮鐨勬湁鏁堝師鍥犳槸鍑虹敓浜烘暩(sh霉)鑰屼笉鏄浜′汉鏁�(sh霉)銆傛湁閫欐ǎ涓€姊濈稉(j墨ng)婵熷師鍓囷細鎾(y菐ng)鐜団€曗€曚笉鑳芥帣閷㈢敓娲荤殑浜轰緷闈犺兘鎺欓將椁�(y菐ng)瀹剁殑浜虹殑绋嬪害鈥曗€曞湪鎴戝€戦€欐ǎ鐨勬洿鑰侀健鍖栫殑绀炬渻閲屾瘮鍦ㄧ櫦(f膩)灞曚腑涓栫晫鐨勮純骞磋紩绀炬渻閲屾洿鏈夊埄涓€浜�銆傚洜鐐哄ぇ閲忕殑灏氶渶鎾(y菐ng)鐨勫瀛愯垏涓€瀹氭暩(sh霉)閲忕殑涓嶈兘宸ヤ綔鐨勮€佸勾浜虹浉姣�锛屾洿鏄€嬭矤鎿�銆傛湁灏嶉€欐ǎ涓€鍊嬫槑椤殑姝峰彶鐪熷鐨勬纰鸿⿻鍍癸細鍏堥€茬ぞ鏈冪殑鑰侀健鍖栭兘鏄竴绋獊璁�銆�

銆€銆€If "revolution鈥� is a rapid resettlement of the social structure, and if the age composition of the society counts as a very important aspect of that social structure, then there has been a social revolution in European and particularly Western European society within the lifetime of everyone over 50. Taken together, these things have implications which are only beginning to be acknowledged. These facts and circumstances were well to the fore earlier this year at a world gathering about aging as a challenge to science and to policy, held at Vichy in France.

濡傛灉鈥滈潻鍛解€濇槸灏嶇ぞ鏈冪祼(ji茅)妲嬬殑杩呴€熼噸寤�锛屽鏋滅ぞ鏈冪殑骞撮健妲嬫垚琚湅浣滅ぞ鏈冪祼(ji茅)妲嬬殑涓€鍊嬮潪甯搁噸瑕佺殑鏂归潰锛岄偅涔堝湪姝愭床绀炬渻锛岀壒鍒ユ槸鍦ㄨタ姝愮ぞ鏈冿紝姣忎竴鍊嬪勾閬�50鐨勪汉鐨勪竴鐢熼兘缍�(j墨ng)姝烽亷涓€娆＄ぞ鏈冮潻鍛�?锛熷仧鑶╃f锛岄€欎簺浜嬫儏鎵€鍖呭惈鐨勬剰缇╂槸浜哄€戝墰鍓涢枊濮嬭獚璀樼殑銆傞€欎簺浜嬪鍜屾儏娉佹棭浜涙檪鍊欏湪娉曞湅缍笇鑸夎鐨勪竴鍊嬩笘鐣屽ぇ鏈冧笂琚 鐐哄皪绉戝鍜屾斂绛栫殑鎸戞埌(zh脿n)鑰岀疆浜庨’钁楃殑鍦颁綅銆�

There is often resistance to the idea that it is because the birthrate fell earlier in Western and Northwestern Europe than elsewhere, rather than because of any change in the death rate, that we have grown so old. But this is what elementary demography makes clear. Long life is alt-ring our society, of course, but in experiential terms. We have among us a very much greater experience of continued living than any society that has ever preceded us anywhere, and this will continue. But too much of that lengthened experience, even in the wealthy West, will be experience of poverty and neglect, unless we do something about it.

銆€銆€鎴戝€戠殑浜哄彛涔嬫墍浠ヨ€侀健鍖栨槸鍥犵偤瑗挎瓙鍜岃タ鍖楁瓙鐨勪汉鍙ｅ嚭鐢熺巼姣斿垾鐨勫湴鏂逛笅闄嶅緱鏃�锛岃€屼笉鏄敱浜庝汉鍙ｆ浜＄巼鏂归潰鐨勪换浣曡畩鍖�锛屽父鏈変汉灏嶆瑙€榛炴彁鍑虹暟璀�銆備絾閫欐鏄熀绀庝汉鍙ｅ鎵€鐮旂┒鐨勫晱椤屻€傜暥鐒�锛岄暦澹芥鏀硅畩钁楁垜鍊戠殑绀炬渻锛屼絾閫欐槸鏍规摎(j霉)缍�(j墨ng)椹楄€屼締鐨勮娉�銆傛垜鍊戠従(xi脿n)鍦ㄦ墍缍�(j墨ng)姝风殑澹藉懡寤堕暦鐨勭稉(j墨ng)椹�锛屾瘮鍦ㄦ垜鍊戜箣鍓嶇殑浠讳綍绀炬渻閮藉寰楀锛岃€屼笖閫欑ó鎯呮硜鏈冪辜绾�(x霉)銆備絾鏄鏋滃＝鍛藉欢绾�(x霉)閬庨暦锛屽嵆渚挎槸鍦ㄥ瘜瑁曠殑瑗挎柟锛屼篃瑕佽畩寰楄钵鍥颁笉鍫�銆佽浜哄拷瑕�锛岄櫎闈炴垜鍊戣憲鎵嬫敼璁婂畠銆�

銆€銆€If you are now in your thirties, you ought to be aware that you can expect to live nearly one third of the rest of your life after the age of 60. The older you are now, of course, the greater this proportion will be, and greater still if you are a woman. Expectation of life is a slippery figure, very easy to get wrong at the highest ages. At Vichy the demographers were telling each other that their estimates of how many old there would be and how long they will live in countries like England and Wales are due for revision upwards.

銆€銆€濡傛灉浣犵従(xi脿n)鍦�30骞炬锛屼綘鎳夌暥鐭ラ亾锛屼綘鍙互鏈夋湜鍦ㄦ椿鍒�60姝蹭互鍚庡啀娲讳笂宸笉澶�15骞�銆傜暥鐒�锛岀従(xi脿n)鍦ㄤ綘骞寸磤瓒婂ぇ锛岄€欏€嬫瘮渚嬪氨鏈冭秺澶�;濡傛灉浣犳槸鍊嬪│濂崇殑瑭�锛岄€欏€嬪勾绱€鏈冩洿澶�銆備汉澹芥湡鏈涘€兼槸鍊嬪綀鎬ф暩(sh霉)瀛楋紝鍦ㄧ寽娓渶楂樺勾榻℃檪锛岀壒鍒ュ鏄撳嚭閷�銆傚湪缍笇锛屼汉鍙ｅ瀹跺€戦兘涓€鑷磋獚鐐�:浠栧€戝皪鍍忚嫳鏍艰槶鍜屽▉鐖惧＋閫欐ǎ鐨勫湅瀹舵湁澶氬皯鑰侀健浜哄彛锛岄€欎簺浜哄彛鏈夊闀风殑澹藉懡鎵€鍋氱殑浼拌▓锛屽凡缍�(j墨ng)鍒颁簡瑭叉妸鏁�(sh霉)鐩線涓婅(di脿o)鏁寸殑鏅傚€欎簡.

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