2024骞撮珮绱�(j铆)鏈�(hu矛)瑷�(j矛)甯倷鑰冧腑锛岀偤骞姪澶у楂樻晥鍌欒€冿紝鏈珯绶ㄨ集鏁寸悊浜嗙珷绡€(ji茅)閲嶈鐭ヨ瓨(sh铆)榛�(di菐n)绮捐瑳锛屼緵澶у瀛�(xu茅)缈�(x铆)锛屾湰鏂囨秹鍙婄鍥涚珷 浼佹キ(y猫)鎶曡硣銆佽瀺璩囨焙绛栬垏闆嗗湗(tu谩n)璩囬噾绠＄悊涓殑铻嶈硣瑕�(gu墨)鍔冭垏浼佹キ(y猫)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鐜囬爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)銆�

銆愮煡璀�(sh铆)榛�(di菐n)銆戣瀺璩囪(gu墨)鍔冭垏浼佹キ(y猫)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鐜囬爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)

寰炰紒妤�(y猫)澧為暦(zh菐ng)銆佸収(n猫i)閮ㄧ暀瀛樿瀺璩囬噺鑸囧閮ㄨ瀺璩囬渶瑕侀噺鐨勯棞(gu膩n)绯讳笂鍙互鐪嬪嚭锛屼紒妤�(y猫)澧為暦(zh菐ng)涓€鏂归潰渚濊炒浜庡収(n猫i)閮ㄧ暀瀛樿瀺璩囧闀�(zh菐ng);鍙︿竴鏂归潰渚濊炒浜庡閮ㄨ瀺璩�(灏ゅ叾鏄矤(f霉)鍌佃瀺璩�)銆備紒妤�(y猫)绠＄悊鑰呭皣鏈�(hu矛)鎻愬嚭閫欐ǎ鐨勫晱椤岋細

鈶犲亣瀹氫紒妤�(y猫)鍠磾渚濋潬?j墨)?n猫i)閮ㄧ暀瀛樿瀺璩囷紝鍓囦紒妤�(y猫)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鐜囨湁澶氬ぇ?

鈶″鏋滀紒妤�(y猫)淇濇寔璩囨湰绲�(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)涓嶈畩锛屽嵆鍦ㄦ湁鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄧ暀瀛樿瀺璩囧強鐩搁厤濂楃殑璨�(f霉)鍌佃瀺璩囨儏娉佷笅(涓嶇櫦(f膩)琛屾柊鑲℃垨杩藉姞鏂扮殑娆�(qu谩n)鐩婅硣鏈姇鍏�)锛屽叕鍙哥殑妤甸檺澧為暦(zh菐ng)閫熷害鍒板簳鏈夊蹇�?

1.鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄥ闀�(zh菐ng)鐜�(鍥炵瓟鍟忛鈶�)

鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄥ闀�(zh菐ng)鐜囨槸鎸囧叕鍙稿湪娌掓湁浠讳綍“灏�(du矛)澶�”铻嶈硣(鍖呮嫭璨�(f霉)鍌靛拰娆�(qu谩n)鐩婅瀺璩�)鎯呮硜涓嬬殑闋�(y霉)鏈熸渶澶у闀�(zh菐ng)鐜囷紝鍗冲叕鍙稿畬鍏ㄤ緷闈�?j墨)?n猫i)閮ㄧ暀瀛樿瀺璩囨墍鑳界敘(ch菐n)鐢熺殑鏈€楂樺闀�(zh菐ng)妤甸檺銆�

鍋囧畾澶栭儴铻嶈硣闇€姹傞噺銆佽矤(f霉)鍌佃瀺璩囩偤0銆�

澶栭儴铻嶈硣闇€姹�=(A×S0×g)-[P×S0×(1+g)×(1-d)]=0

鍓囪畩鎻涘悗鍙緱锛�

g(鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄥ闀�(zh菐ng)鐜�)=[P×(1-d)]/[A−P×(1-d)]

=[閵峰敭鍑堝埄鐜�×(1-鐝�(xi脿n)閲戣偂鍒╂敮浠樼巼)]/[鍩烘湡璩囩敘(ch菐n)鍗犲熀鏈熼姺鍞敹鍏ョ殑鐧惧垎姣�-閵峰敭鍑堝埄鐜�×(1-鐝�(xi脿n)閲戣偂鍒╂敮浠樼巼)]

灏囦笂寮忕殑鍒嗗瓙銆佸垎姣嶅悓涔橀姺鍞敹鍏�锛屽苟鍚岄櫎璩囩敘(ch菐n)绺介鍗冲彲寰楀埌姹傚収(n猫i)閮ㄥ闀�(zh菐ng)鐜囩殑鍙︿竴鍊�(g猫)甯哥敤鍏紡锛屽嵆锛�

鍏�(n猫i)閮ㄥ闀�(zh菐ng)鐜�=[ROA(1-d)]/[1-ROA(1-d)]

=[绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n)鍫�(b脿o)閰巼×(1-鐝�(xi脿n)閲戣偂鍒╂敮浠樼巼)]/[1-绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n)鍫�(b脿o)閰巼×(1-鐝�(xi脿n)閲戣偂鍒╂敮浠樼巼)]

寮忎腑锛歊OA鐐哄叕鍙哥附璩囩敘(ch菐n)鍫�(b脿o)閰巼(鍗崇▍鍚庡噲鍒�/绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n))銆�

2.鍙寔绾�(x霉)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鐜�(鍥炵瓟鍟忛鈶�)

鍙寔绾�(x霉)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鐜囨槸鎸囦笉鐧�(f膩)琛屾柊鑲�銆佷笉鏀硅畩缍�(j墨ng)鐕�(y铆ng)鏁堢巼(涓嶆敼璁婇姺鍞噲鍒╃巼鍜岃硣鐢�(ch菐n)鍛ㄨ綁(zhu菐n)鐜�)鍜岃病(c谩i)鍕�(w霉)鏀跨瓥(涓嶆敼璁婅硣鏈祼(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)鍜屽埄娼�(r霉n)鐣欏瓨鐜�)鏅�(sh铆)锛屽叾閵峰敭鎵€鑳介仈(d谩)鍒扮殑鏈€楂樺闀�(zh菐ng)鐜�銆�

鍙寔绾�(x霉)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鐜囩殑瑷�(j矛)绠楀叕寮忓彲閫氶亷濡備笅姝ラ閫�(j矛n)琛屾帹灏�(d菐o)锛�

(1)閵峰敭澧為暦(zh菐ng)甯朵締鏂板鐨勫収(n猫i)閮ㄧ暀瀛樿瀺璩囬=S0×(1+g)×P×(1-d)銆�

(2)鐐虹董鎸佺洰妯�(bi膩o)璩囨湰绲�(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)锛岄渶瑕佹柊澧炵殑璨�(f霉)鍌佃瀺璩囬=S0×(1+g)×P×(1-d)×D/E銆�

鍦ㄤ笉鑰冩叜鏂拌偂鐧�(f膩)琛屾垨鏂板娆�(qu谩n)鐩婅瀺璩囦笅锛屼笂杩板叐闋�(xi脿ng)璩囨湰渚嗘簮鎳�(y墨ng)绛変簬閵峰敭澧為暦(zh菐ng)灏�(du矛)璩囩敘(ch菐n)鐨勫閲忛渶姹�(璩囩敘(ch菐n)鍗犻姺鍞櫨鍒嗘瘮×澧為噺閵峰敭=A×S0×g)銆�

渚濇摎(j霉)锛氳硣鐢�(ch菐n)澧炲姞椤�=璨�(f霉)鍌靛鍔犻+鐣欏瓨鏀剁泭澧炲姞椤�锛屽彲鐭ワ細

鍙寔绾�(x霉)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鐜�=[P(1-d)(1+D/E)]/[A-P(1-d)(1+D/E)]

鍚屾ǎ灏囦笂寮忕殑鍒嗗瓙銆佸垎姣嶅悓涔樹互鍩烘湡閵峰敭鏀跺叆锛屽苟鍚岄櫎鍩烘湡璩囩敘(ch菐n)绺介锛屽緱鍒板彲鎸佺簩(x霉)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鐜囩殑鍙︿竴鍊�(g猫)琛ㄩ仈(d谩)寮�銆�

鍙寔绾�(x霉)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鐜�=[绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n)鍛ㄨ綁(zhu菐n)鐜�×閵峰敭鍑堝埄鐜�×(1-鐝�(xi脿n)閲戣偂鍒╂敮浠樼巼)×(1+鐢�(ch菐n)娆�(qu谩n)姣旂巼)]/[1-绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n)鍛ㄨ綁(zhu菐n)鐜�×閵峰敭鍑堝埄鐜�×(1-鐝�(xi脿n)閲戣偂鍒╂敮浠樼巼)×(1+鐢�(ch菐n)娆�(qu谩n)姣旂巼)]

鎴栵細

鍙寔绾�(x霉)澧為暦(zh菐ng)鐜�=[ROE(1-d)]/[1-ROE(1-d)]

=[鍑堣硣鐢�(ch菐n)鏀剁泭鐜�×(1-鐝�(xi脿n)閲戣偂鍒╂敮浠樼巼)]/[1-鍑堣硣鐢�(ch菐n)鏀剁泭鐜�×(1-鐝�(xi脿n)閲戣偂鍒╂敮浠樼巼)]

鍏朵腑锛歊OE浠ｈ〃鍑堣硣鐢�(ch菐n)鏀剁泭鐜�(绋呭悗鍑堝埄/鎵€鏈夎€呮瑠(qu谩n)鐩婄附椤�)锛屽叾浠栧瓧姣嶅惈缇╀笉璁�銆�

甯哥敤鐨勪紒妤�(y猫)鍩烘湰璨�(c谩i)鍕�(w霉)姣旂巼锛�

閵峰敭鍑堝埄鐜�銆佺附璩囩敘(ch菐n)鍫�(b脿o)閰巼(绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n)鍑堝埄鐜�)銆佸噲璩囩敘(ch菐n)鏀剁泭鐜�銆佺附璩囩敘(ch菐n)鍛ㄨ綁(zhu菐n)鐜�銆佽硣鐢�(ch菐n)璨�(f霉)鍌电巼銆佺敘(ch菐n)娆�(qu谩n)姣旂巼銆佹瑠(qu谩n)鐩婁箻鏁�(sh霉)銆佺従(xi脿n)閲戣偂鍒╂敮浠樼巼銆佸埄娼�(r霉n)鐣欏瓨鐜�(鐣欏瓨鏀剁泭鐜�)銆�

璩囩敘(ch菐n)璨�(f霉)鍌电巼=璨�(f霉)鍌�/璩囩敘(ch菐n)×100%

鐢�(ch菐n)娆�(qu谩n)姣旂巼=璨�(f霉)鍌�/鎵€鏈夎€呮瑠(qu谩n)鐩�=D/E

娆�(qu谩n)鐩婁箻鏁�(sh霉)=璩囩敘(ch菐n)/鎵€鏈夎€呮瑠(qu谩n)鐩�=(1+D/E)=1+鐢�(ch菐n)娆�(qu谩n)姣旂巼=1/(1-璩囩敘(ch菐n)璨�(f霉)鍌电巼)

鍒╂饯(r霉n)鐣欏瓨鐜�+鐝�(xi脿n)閲戣偂鍒╂敮浠樼巼=1

绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n)鍫�(b脿o)閰巼(ROA)=绋呭悗鍑堝埄/绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n)=閵峰敭鍑堝埄鐜�×绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n)鍛ㄨ綁(zhu菐n)鐜�

鍑堣硣鐢�(ch菐n)鏀剁泭鐜�(ROE)=绋呭悗鍑堝埄/鑲℃澅娆�(qu谩n)鐩�=绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n)鍫�(b脿o)閰巼×娆�(qu谩n)鐩婁箻鏁�(sh霉)=閵峰敭鍑堝埄鐜�×绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n)鍛ㄨ綁(zhu菐n)鐜�×娆�(qu谩n)鐩婁箻鏁�(sh霉)

(绺�)璩囩敘(ch菐n)鍛ㄨ綁(zhu菐n)鐜�=鐕�(y铆ng)妤�(y猫)鏀跺叆/绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n)(骞冲潎绺借硣鐢�(ch菐n))

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