鐐哄公鍔╁ぇ瀹舵洿濂界殑鍌欒€�2024骞翠俊鎭郴绲�(t菕ng)闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗斧鑰冭│锛屽皬绶ㄧ壒鏁寸悊浜�“淇℃伅绯荤当(t菕ng)闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗斧瑷�(j矛)绠楅鑰冮粸(di菐n)”鍏�(n猫i)瀹�锛屾湰绯诲垪鍏�(n猫i)瀹瑰皣鎸佺簩(x霉)鏇存柊锛屽倷鑰冪殑鑰冪敓鍙互闂�(gu膩n)娉ㄦ敹钘�銆傚叿楂斿収(n猫i)瀹瑰涓嬫枃鎵€绀�锛屽笇鏈涘皪(du矛)澶у鏈夌敤銆�

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淇℃伅绯荤当(t菕ng)闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗斧瑷�(j矛)绠楅鑰冮粸(di菐n)锛氭姇璩囧洖鏀舵湡

鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈熸硶锛�鍙堝彨鎶曡硣杩旀湰鏈熸硶鎴栨姇璩囧劅閭勬湡娉曪紝鏄寚浠ラ爡(xi脿ng)鐩殑鍑堟敹鐩�(鍖呮嫭鍒╂饯鍜屾姌鑸�)鎶靛劅鍏ㄩ儴鎶曡硣(鍖呮嫭鍥哄畾璩囩敘(ch菐n)鎶曡硣鍜屾祦鍕�(d貌ng)璩囬噾鎶曡硣)鎵€闇€鐨勬檪(sh铆)闁擄紝涓€鑸互骞寸偤瑷�(j矛)绠楀柈浣�锛屽緸闋�(xi脿ng)鐩姇寤轰箣骞寸畻璧�銆傛姇璩囧洖鏀舵湡鏈夐潨鎱�(t脿i)鍜屽嫊(d貌ng)鎱�(t脿i)涔嬪垎銆�

鍏╄€呭崁(q奴)鍒ワ細闈滄厠(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈熸矑鏈夊弽鏄犺硣閲戠殑鏅�(sh铆)闁撳児(ji脿)鍊�锛岃垗妫勪簡鍥炴敹鏈熶互鍚庣殑鏀跺叆鑸囨敮鍑烘暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)锛屼笉鑳藉叏闈㈠弽鏄犻爡(xi脿ng)鐩湪澹藉懡鏈熷収(n猫i)鐨勭湡瀵�(sh铆)鐙€鎱�(t脿i)锛岄洠浠ュ皪(du矛)涓嶅悓鏂规鐨勬瘮杓冮伕鎿囨彁渚涙湁鍔涙敮鎾�銆傝€屽嫊(d貌ng)鎱�(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈熸槸鎸囧湪鑰冩叜璩囬噾鏅�(sh铆)闁撳児(ji脿)鍊兼浠朵笅锛屾寜瑷�(sh猫)瀹氱殑鍩烘簴(zh菙n)鏀剁泭鐜囨敹鍥炲叏閮ㄦ姇璩囨墍闇€鐨勬檪(sh铆)闁�銆傚嫊(d貌ng)鎱�(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈熸硶涓昏鏄偤浜嗗厠鏈嶉潨鎱�(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈熸硶鏈€冩叜鏅�(sh铆)闁撳洜绱犵殑缂洪粸(di菐n)銆�

瑷�(j矛)绠楀叕寮忥細

闈滄厠(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈燂細Pt=(绱▓(j矛)鍑堢従(xi脿n)閲戞祦閲忛枊濮嬪嚭鐝�(xi脿n)姝ｅ€兼垨闆剁殑骞翠唤鏁�(sh霉)-1)+涓婂勾绱▓(j矛)鍑堢従(xi脿n)閲戞祦閲忕殑绲曞皪(du矛)鍊�/鐣�(d膩ng)骞村噲鐝�(xi脿n)閲戞祦閲�

鍕�(d貌ng)鎱�(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈燂細PD=(绱▓(j矛)鎶樼従(xi脿n)鍊奸枊濮嬪嚭鐝�(xi脿n)姝ｅ€兼垨闆剁殑骞翠唤-1)+涓婂勾绱▓(j矛)鎶樼従(xi脿n)鍊肩殑绲曞皪(du矛)鍊�/鐣�(d膩ng)骞存姌鐝�(xi脿n)鍊�

绨″柈渚嗚锛屾姇璩囧洖鏀舵湡鍒嗘瀽灏辨槸瑕佺⒑瀹氬緱缍�(j墨ng)閬庡闀锋檪(sh铆)闁撶疮瑷�(j矛)鏀剁泭鍙互瓒呴亷绱▓(j矛)鎴愭湰銆傛墍浠ユ姇璩囧洖鏀舵湡瓒婄煭瓒婂ソ銆�

銆愭韩棣ㄦ彁绀恒€�闂�(gu膩n)浜庢姇鍏ュ勾銆佹垨寤鸿ō(sh猫)鏈熷緸绗�0骞撮倓鏄1骞撮枊濮嬬畻锛屾湁浜涜€冪敓鏈夋鐤戝晱锛屽叾瀵�(sh铆)鎴戝€戞牴鎿�(j霉)姝峰勾鑰冭│鐨勭附绲�(ji茅)渚嗙湅锛屽彲浠ラ粯瑾�(r猫n)鎸変笅杩拌(gu墨)鍓団埗濡傛灉椤岀洰鏄寜骞村2020銆�2021绛夌殑锛屾姇鐢�(ch菐n)骞存寜绗�0骞翠締绠�;濡傛灉椤岀洰鏈夋寚鏄庣1骞存槸鎶曠敘(ch菐n)骞寸殑锛屽墖鎶曠敘(ch菐n)鎸夌1骞撮枊濮嬬畻锛岀劧鍚庡啀绲�(ji茅)鍚堢瓟妗堜締鐪�銆�

銆愯│椤岃垑渚嬭鏄庛€�

鏌愯粺浠朵紒妤�(y猫)2006骞村垵瑷�(j矛)鍔冩姇璩�2000钀汉姘戝梗闁嬬櫦(f膩)鏌愮敘(ch菐n)鍝侊紝闋�(y霉)瑷�(j矛)寰�2007骞撮枊濮嬬泩鍒�锛屽悇骞寸敘(ch菐n)鍝侀姺鍞濡傝〃鎵€绀恒€傛牴鎿�(j霉)琛ㄤ腑鐨勬暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)锛岃┎鐢�(ch菐n)鍝佺殑闈滄厠(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈熸槸(1)骞�锛屽嫊(d貌ng)鎱�(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈熸槸(2)骞�銆�(鎻愮ず锛氳ō(sh猫)璨肩従(xi脿n)鐜囩偤0.1)

(1)A.1.8;B.1.9;C.2;D.2.2

(2)A.2;B.2.1;C.2.4;D.3

銆愮瓟妗堛€�(1)A;(2)B

銆愯В鏋愩€�鏍规摎(j霉)琛ㄦ牸涓殑鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)锛屽彲浠ュ緱鍑哄緸绗�2骞�(2008骞�)绱▓(j矛)鐝�(xi脿n)閲戞祦閲忛枊濮嬪ぇ浜�0锛屾墍浠ュ埄鐢ㄥ叕寮忥細

闈滄厠(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈�=(2-1)+|990-2000|/1210≈1.8

鏍规摎(j霉)琛ㄦ牸涓殑鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)锛屽彲浠ュ緱鍑哄緸绱▓(j矛)鎶樼従(xi脿n)鍊硷細

2006骞寸偤锛�-2000

2007骞寸偤锛�-2000+990/(1+0.1)=-1100

2008骞寸偤锛�-1100+1210/(1+0.1)2=-100

2009骞寸偤锛�-100+1198/(1+0.1)3=800.07513148

鎵€浠ュ緸绗�3骞撮枊濮嬬疮瑷�(j矛)鎶樼従(xi脿n)鍊奸枊濮嬪ぇ浜�0锛屾墍浠ュ埄鐢ㄥ叕寮忥細

鍕�(d貌ng)鎱�(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈�=(3-1)+|-100|/900.07513148≈2.11

銆愮湡椤屾紨绶淬€�

闋�(xi脿ng)鐩稉(j墨ng)鐞嗗埗瀹氫簡闋�(xi脿ng)鐩硣鐢�(ch菐n)璨�(f霉)鍌佃〃(鍠綅锛氬厓)锛屽涓嬭〃鎵€绀�銆傝┎闋�(xi脿ng)鐩殑闈滄厠(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈熺偤()骞�锛屽嫊(d貌ng)鎱�(t脿i)鎶曡硣鍥炴敹鏈熺偤()骞�(淇濈暀涓€浣嶅皬鏁�(sh霉)浣�)銆�

(1)A銆�2

B銆�2.4

C銆�2.8

D銆�3.

(2)A銆�3

B銆�3.4

C銆�3.5

D銆�3.6

鍙冭€冪瓟妗堬細C銆丅

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